Measuring Dynamical Prediction Utility Using Relative Entropy
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Measuring Dynamical Prediction Utility Using Relative Entropy
A new parameter of dynamical system predictability is introduced that measures the potential utility of predictions. It is shown that this parameter satisfies a generalized second law of thermodynamics in that for Markov processes utility declines monotonically to zero at very long forecast times. Expressions for the new parameter in the case of Gaussian prediction ensembles are derived and a u...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
سال: 2002
ISSN: 0022-4928,1520-0469
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<2057:mdpuur>2.0.co;2